Miami Heat (6-7) guard Max Strus is coming off of a season-high 31 points against Charlotte, and will look for another top performance at home on Monday against the Phoenix Suns (8-4). That might be easier said than done if Suns point guard Chris Paul returns from a heel injury that has kept him out of the last two games. He’s listed as questionable. Miami has won four of its last six games, while Phoenix is 2-3 in its last five.

Tip-off from Miami is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, where the Heat are 5-4 this season. Miami is favored by 2 points in the latest Heat vs. Suns odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over/under is set at 216. Before entering any Suns vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four seasons. The model enters Week 5 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 100-66 roll on all top-rated NBA picks that dates back to last season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Suns. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Suns vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Suns spread: Heat -2
  • Heat vs. Suns over/under: 216 points
  • Heat vs. Suns money line: Miami -130, Phoenix +110
  • Heat vs. Suns picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns

What you need to know about the Heat

Miami handled its business and came away with a decisive 132-115 win at home on Saturday. Small forward Jimmy Butler had 20 points and eight assists in addition to seven boards. Center Bam Adebayo also had a top performance with 24 points and 15 rebounds, and Gabe Vincent chipped in with 20 points off the bench.

One thing that Miami has been able to rely on when it comes to building or chipping away at margin is its free throw shooting. The Heat have the highest free-throw percentage in the league, at 86.7%, and Kyle Lowry has been sharpest at the charity stripe (91.1 FT%). Phoenix opponents have taken 24.7 free throws per game, which is fifth-most in the NBA.

What you need to know about the Suns

Phoenix fell behind the Orlando Magic and couldn’t battle back on Friday, 114-97. One thing holding Phoenix back was the mediocre play of small forward Mikal Bridges, who played for 37 minutes but put up just eight points on 3-for-13 shooting. Bridges has otherwise been a reliable option for Phoenix this season, and is averaging career-highs in points (15.7) and rebounds (5.2) per game. 

One thing Phoenix has done particularly well this season is maintaining possession while creating turnovers. The Suns only turn the ball over 13.3 times per game (5th in NBA), but create 16.4 opponent turnovers, which is also fifth in the league. Paul’s return to the lineup would provide a big lift to the Suns defense, as he averages 1.7 steals per game in 2022.

How to make Suns vs. Heat picks

The model has simulated Heat vs. Suns 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Suns? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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