The Miami Heat host the New Orleans Pelicans in a matinee clash on Sunday. Miami is 25-22 overall and 14-9 at home this season. New Orleans is 26-20 overall and aiming to stop a three-game losing skid. Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Brandon Ingram (toe) are out for New Orleans, with Naji Marshall (toe) listed as doubtful. Duncan Robinson (finger), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), and Nikola Jovic (back) are out for Miami.

Tipoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 7.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 217.5 in the latest Pelicans vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Pelicans picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 45-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Pelicans and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Pelicans vs. Heat:

  • Pelicans vs. Heat spread: Heat -7.5
  • Pelicans vs. Heat over/under: 217.5 points
  • Pelicans vs. Heat money line: Heat -305, Pelicans +240
  • NO: The Pelicans are 9-14 against the spread in road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 7-14-2 against the spread in home games
  • Pelicans vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Why the Pelicans can cover

The Pelicans rank in the top 10 of the NBA in both offensive and defensive efficiency, out-scoring opponents by almost three points per 100 possessions. New Orleans is elite at creating free throw attempts on offense, averaging 26.0 per game, and the Pelicans are in the top 10 in assists, field goal percentage, offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, fast break points and points in the paint this season. 

On the other end, the Pelicans create havoc with 15.6 turnovers created per game, and that includes the second-most steals (8.5 per game) in the NBA. New Orleans holds opponents to 34.3% from 3-point range, and the Pelicans are in the top 10 in free throw prevention (23.2 attempts allowed per game) and defensive rebound rate (73.2%). The Pelicans are also facing a Heat offense that ranks No. 24 in the NBA in overall efficiency and in the bottom five in field goal percentage, making only 45.5% of attempts.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defense is fantastic across the board. The Heat allow fewer than 1.12 points per possession, ranking near the top of the league, and Miami is No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (44.0 per game). Miami is No. 2 in fast break points allowed (11.4 per game), and the Heat create more than 16 turnovers and eight steals per game. Miami protects the rim without fouling, yielding fewer than 21 free throw attempts per game, and the Heat are in the top 10 in defensive rebound rate (73.2%) and second-chance points allowed (12.6 per game). 

On the offensive side, Miami has a pair of stars in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, with both averaging more than 21 points on more than 51% shooting. The Heat are also in the top six in both turnover avoidance (13.5 per game) and free throw accuracy (82.7%).

How to make Heat vs. Pelicans picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 226 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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