The Dallas Mavericks put a seven-game winning streak on the line on Thursday evening. The Mavericks host the Boston Celtics in a high-profile matchup between cross-conference powers. Dallas is 22-16 overall and 15-5 at home this season, with Boston entering at 26-12. Maxi Kleber (hamstring), Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor), and Josh Green (elbow) are out for the Mavericks. Danilo Gallinari (knee) is out for the Celtics.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 2-point road favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 230.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 38-13 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning almost $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Mavericks spread: Celtics -2
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks over/under: 230.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks money line: Celtics -135, Mavericks +115
  • BOS: The Celtics are 9-9 against the spread in road games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-11-2 against the spread in home games
  • Celtics vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston’s offense is exceptionally difficult to stop. The Celtics lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 117.0 points per 100 possessions, and Boston is in the top five of the league in free throw accuracy (82.6%) and 2-point percentage (57.5%). The Celtics also rank in the top 10 in 3-point percentage (37.2%), assists (26.6 per game), and turnover rate (13.6%). 

Boston has two high-profile scoring wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, with Tatum averaging 30.8 points per game to rank in the top five of the league. He also produces 8.1 rebounds per game with high-level defense, with Brown adding 27.2 points on 49.8% shooting to go along with 7.1 rebounds per contest. Boston is also very strong defensively with a top-10 overall mark in efficiency, and opponents attempt only 21.1 free throws per game and generate fewer than 23 assists per game against the Celtics.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has a leading MVP candidate in Luka Doncic. He is averaging 44.5 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game in the last six contests, making 43% of 3-point attempts in the process. For the season, Doncic averages 34.3 points per game to lead the NBA, and he ranks in the top five of the league with 8.9 assists per contest. 

With Doncic at the helm, the Mavericks are No. 6 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 1.15 points per possession, and Dallas ranks in the top three of the league in turnovers (12.3 per game), 2-point accuracy (58.1%), and free throw creation (25.8 attempts per game). On defense, the Mavericks limit opponents to only 10.9 3-pointers per game, and Dallas is in the top eight of the NBA in assists allowed (23.8 per game) and fast break points allowed (12.6 per game) this season.

How to make Mavericks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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